Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Red Queens and Increasing Returns


When I decided to use the movie Total Recall for Module 4 assignment, I didn’t have to go far to it. Total Recall, based on Phillip K. Dick‘s book, is a part of my home collection of videos and one that I have watch many times.

The current competition between DVDs and video on demand is a example of increasing returns as describe, by Dr. Thornburg where “two innovations hit the market at about the same time and by chance, one technology gets locked in and drives the other to extinction, in a nonlinear process” (Thornburg, 2009). According to Chris Anders from Wired Magazine, Reed Hastings the founder of Netflix saw an “inflection point” at the moment when home theater units started becoming popular with the DVD hitting critical mass and saw an amazing opportunity (Anderson, 2004). At this point in time, neither the DVD nor video on demand has locked in, so let the game continue!

Last summer I visited Navada, and I learned to appreciate “the art of playing the tables in the Casino of Technology…and above all, the rewards go to the player who are first to make sense of the new games looming out of the technological fog and make adaptations to what is coming” (Arthur, 1996). Therefore, as I think about the four criteria of McLuhan’ tetrad, DVDs and video on demand are currently on the “Enhances” quadrant, because both of these technologies have enhanced the quality of life for many families to allow more time spent together at home, and I am not sure what will replace them yet as predicted in the “Reverse” quadrant (McLuhan, 1988).

References:
Anderson, C. (2004). Tech’s long tail [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/chris_anderson_of_wired_on_tech_s_long_tail.html

Arthur, W.B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74 (4), 100-109.

McLuhan, M., & McLuhan, E. (1988). Laws of media: The new science. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Red Queens Image. Retrieve from http://www.proteusadvisor.com/uploaded_images/Red-Queen-733517.jpg.

Thornburg, D. D. (2009). Increasing returns and red queens. Laureate Education, Inc. Retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn? CourseID=4199715&Survey=1&7=5797856&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

2 comments:

  1. You asked what might replace VOD - In other postings in this course, people have talked about holographs -- do you see the movies coming into your living room in holographic form in the future?

    I also wonder about the linkage of technology with the larger context of society. The DVD and VOD lead to the popularity of home theaters. With the current economy and the obsoleting of "home ownership" and the "downsizing" of homes - will the impact the home theater's popularity? Maybe the simplicity of the drive-in theater -- a seat, blanket and home-made snack- and a movie (on some form TBD) is the future.

    I don't know. Since I am not a big movie/TV watcher thinking about what might be is clearly out of my area of projecting.

    Thank for your post!

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  2. Hi Debbie,
    Those are great questions that you asked. I miss the drive-in movie, lol. I think that even though the economy is on the decline, those who do own their homes will probably continue to use the vod feature...it's just easier. But, wouldn't it be something if we could bring the drive-in back?

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